The dollar fell dry! Will the dollar continue to fall?
Last minute ... While the dollar rate regressed last week with the messages of Central Bank Governor Naci Ağbal, the new week accelerated its decline. The dollar rate, which entered the day at 7.31 lira, fell to the lowest level of about 5.5 months, seeing the 7.20 level. Dollar / TL had last seen the level of 7.19 TL on August 21, 2020.
The dollar / TL, which started to decline with the messages of the Central Bank (CBRT) Governor Naci Ağbal in the first inflation report presentation of the year and the emphasis on "fight against inflation" last week, lost 1.3 percent on a weekly basis and completed Friday at 7.3179 .
The dollar, which regressed last week with the messages of Central Bank Governor Naci Ağbal, started the new week with a decline. The dollar rate, which entered the day at 7.31 lira, saw the 7.20 level, reaching the lowest level of about 5.5 months. Dollar / TL had last seen the level of 7.19 lira on August 21st.
THE MESSAGE WILL CONTINUE TIGHT HOLD IS PRESSING DOLLAR DRY
The clear messages Ağbal gave to the markets show that investors will receive positive returns by keeping the interest rate above inflation, especially until the 5 percent inflation target is reached. In addition, the statements 'We will tighten more if necessary' stand out as the biggest factor that suppresses the dollar / TL.
NOT CHANGING INFLATION FORECAST BOOSTED THE PREDICTABILITY
Keeping the 2021 year-end inflation forecast at the same level increases the predictability of the Central Bank in its forecasts, while the condition that the tight monetary policy will continue causes the TL to stand stronger than the currencies of other developing countries.
THIS WEEK THE EYES WILL BE IN THE INFLATION DATA INSIDE THE HOME
In the new week, domestic markets will focus on inflation data. Economists participating in the AA Finance Inflation Expectation Survey expect the CPI to increase by 1.48 percent in January. According to the average of economists' January inflation expectations (1.48 percent), it is calculated that the annual inflation, which was 14.60 percent in the previous month, will increase to 14.75 percent.
Dollar / TL was traded at 7.2231 lira as of 12:47, while the intraday high was 7.3151 and the lowest was 7.2093. At the same hour, the euro found buyers at 8.7380 lira, the highest 8.8821 and the lowest 8.7273.
Weak course of dollar exchange pressured gram gold prices. Gram gold finds buyers for 432 liras.
WILL THE DOLLAR FALL CONTINUE?
In their reports, foreign banks drew attention to the fact that the weak trend in dollar / TL may continue. While HSBC announced the year-end USD / TL forecast at 7.10, it predicted that a full normalization could pull the rate up to 6.50. Swiss bank UBS, on the other hand, argued that the dollar / TL could loosen to 7 liras at the end of the first quarter of 2021, while Credit Suisse revised the short-term target to 7 liras in the currency.